These products consist of: Latest tropical cyclone forecast: generated automatically whenever a tropical cyclone is observed (reported via the Global Telecommunication System) at the initial time of the forecast and is present in the The Centre has one of the largest supercomputer facilities and meteorological data archives in the world. Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:32:11 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number 11 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 In contrast, the HRWF and HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours. Despite this, it has shown skill in forecasting Tropical Cyclones. The … NHC Public Advisory on Laura. The ECMWF does not alter its initial fields for Tropical Cyclones. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Beyond the good medium-range track prediction skill of the ECMWF model, its high resolution has shown potential for useful intensity forecasting. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. The ECMWF does show slightly cooler SSTs over the eastern Gulf of Mexico because its oceanic model is coupled to its atmospheric model so its correctly identifying a tiny bit of upwelling/overturning due to Hurricane Marco. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. However I assure you that Laura will have absolutely no … We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in western Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt. ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.