2022 geopolitical events

In DIFC: 'Professional Clients and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022 Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. /F5 65 0 R You may not get back the amount originally invested. /Font << Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows . While this could create space for more cooperation on issues of mutual interest (climate protection and expanded intra-regional trade, for example), there are two different competing economic models at play the more populist economics of Argentina and perhaps Brazil, and the more statist policies in places like Chile and Colombia. /CS /DeviceRGB The indicator has declined form 2022 highs but remains elevated amid market attention to Russia-NATO conflict and U.S.-China strategic competition. With the wounds of the pandemic still under triage, a rebound in trade could the best hope for governments and businesses alike. The world's response to Russia's aggression came swiftly with the EU, the U.S., and other major G-20 nations imposing a severe set of economic sanctions that . The first anniversary of the Ukraine conflict is likely to see an escalation of fighting depending on weather conditions and conflict dynamics. /ExtGState << 10 0 obj Leaders from government, civil society and the private sector will discuss and address issues related to the governance of the internet. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx. /Type /Page /ExtGState << Geopolitical events are a key driver of economic and business decisions. On Feb. 24, the Russian armed forces invaded Ukraine, starting a military conflict of a magnitude not seen in Europe since the end of World War II. >> The ongoing conflict as well as financial assistance will likely be the focal points of the meeting. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, January 2023. 1 / 12. Credit. The weakening of the euro against the US dollar a consequence of Europes weaker recovery and its less forward leaning approach to monetary tightening will be a boon for EU exporters, while dampening inflationary pressure in the US. This event took place on 02/26/2023. The start of monetary tightening in the US could cause an increase in borrowing costs for emerging markets. The EU sanctions against Russia will likely be extended ahead of the deadline. endobj 2022. The next general election is scheduled for 7 May but could occur earlier if parliament dissolves before 28 March. Vladimir Putin has cleared away theimpediments that prevent him from remaining in power after 2024, and the politicking that accompanied uncertainty has died down. /Contents [66 0 R 67 0 R 68 0 R] The US and some other developed economies are recovering fast and have already made up the ground lost during the pandemic. With richer states tending towards booster shots, availability will not increase as quickly as many in the developing world might hope. /CS /DeviceRGB January 26 Asia-Pacific: South Korea will release economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022, and it is expected to show a quarterly contraction. Despite the challenges there are many positive opportunities emerging for Africa today, Curated by the BU Sub-Saharan Africa Working Group, authors for this special edition of the BUlletin explore areas of growth and the role of different sources of international finance tapping this, exploring the multiple secondary impacts of both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, from sovereign risk in Africa, to energy security, political violence and the private CPRI market, Shocks and short-circuits: The re-wiring of global trade. . Meanwhile, decision-making is likely to slow as attention increasingly turns towards the elections. Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's AheadTM including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events. Incumbent Julius Maada Bio is currently the favourite to secure re-election. The G20 ETWG is the first of its kind to focus entirely on the energy transitions and will be held in Bengaluru (India). China has started to deleverage its property sector, and while this will eventually put the country on a more solid financial footing it will certainly result in weaker GDP growth. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] However, the UK government will likely seek to extend this deadline similar to their decision in October 2022. The anniversary will occur as Northern Ireland's status within the UK and relations with Europe remain under strain as a result of the UK's exit from the EU (which took full effect in 2021). While North Koreas nuclear weapons normally get all the attention, Pyongyang has stepped up development and testing of conventional weapons, with a particular focus on large-caliber rockets and shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles. Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306. Since 1999, we've been a leading provider of financial technology, and our clients turn to us for the solutions they need when planning for their most important goals. It's a casual read best skimmed over the first sip or two of coffee before your brain is fully engaged. Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index. 3/R.M. Save. US President Joe Biden enters 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his government rather than the Fed for elevated inflation. This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Yet that winter will pose new strains for some developed states, as publics press for increased freedom of movement and governments seek to press the vaccine-hesitant and the vaccine opposed to either accept the jab or suffer limits on their ability to work and move. /F12 58 0 R In Latin America, no securities regulator within Latin America has confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. endobj Technology-driven trade and client interaction are nothing new. Turkey's Economic Troubles. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central banks outlook report. /MediaBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] Spring Periodical with 2018 Year end statistics and commentary, plus results of the 2019 'State of the Industry Survey', conducted jointly with ICISA. endobj The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. February 2022 County Sales and Price Activity (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted) February 2022. << February 2018 (Revised March 2022) Measuring Geopolitical Risk . /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] Are you looking for fun and entertaining things to do? /Image41 38 0 R << >> /Parent 2 0 R Another year, another try. The information contained within, does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer of, invitation or proposal to make an offer for, recommendation to apply for or an opinion or guidance on a financial product, service and/or strategy. Registered office: 29th floor, Olaya Towers Tower B, 3074 Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz St., Olaya District, Riyadh 12213 8022, KSA, Tel: +966 11 838 3600. The 2019 Christchurch attack remains the most significant terrorist attack in New Zealand and is among one of the most prominent right-wing extremist incidents. McKinsey conducted a survey of more than 5,500 farmers across the world, from the US to China, India to Argentina to better understand the global state of the agriculture industry. Indonesia, Japan, Brazil, India and others are pursuing their own national strategies to maneuver among the big powers and shape not only their regional environment but broader concepts of shifting global norms as well. As a global investment manager and fiduciary to our clients, our purpose at BlackRock is to help everyone experience financial well-being. Dec 29, 2014, 1:54 PM. But what will it mean in practice? This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. >> Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Listen. Global Farmer Insights 2022. In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Yet beyond 2022, this will potentially store up troubles. /GS8 21 0 R Themes for September span the full scale of international nance in a bumper edition, with a selection of 12 articles from Berne Union members and industry experts, painting a telling picture of the relative pressures and priorities in "New Horizons: Changing Markets, Evolving Approaches". Parties that lose the elections will raise allegations of rigging and manipulation. For Professional Investors only (Professional Investor is defined in Financial Instruments and Exchange Act). Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years. Top 10 geopolitical events of 2022 Ukraine-Russia War: On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the former USSR country to annex its eastern regions and stop it from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen One Earth, One Family, One Future as the theme. Incidents of political violence are likely to increase after the campaign period begins and candidates begin to organise rallies. << The Website is intended for the following audiences in each respective country or region: In the U.S.: public distribution. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] Weekly Geopolitical Report - The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021) by Bill O'Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. While the second summit was initially intended to take place in Africa, in January 2023 the organisers announced that it will be held in St Petersburg (Russia). /ModDate (D:20220705215933+01'00') Registered in England and Wales No. Join facilitator John Busch and share your thoughts on current events at this monthly discussion group. For Other APAC Countries, this material is issued for Institutional Investors only (or professional/sophisticated /qualified investors, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions). of 2017 concerning Promoting and Introducing Regulations. While seemingly contradictory, this both increases the risks of short, sharp clashes between North Korean and South Korean (or even U.S. or Japanese) forces or assets and decreases the risk of rapid escalation to nuclear conflict or all-out war. However, al-Qaida has yet to appoint a new leader after a counter-terrorism operation in August 2022 killed its long-time leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Bolsonaros hopes rest partly on centre-right parties not coalescing around a single candidate.RussiaRussia, by contrast, will not be troubled by questions over who will be president. In addition, a new premier will be appointed in March to replace Premier Li Keqiang. Before we proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following terms and Conditions: Track our top geopolitical risks and their potential impact on markets. Armed anti-coup groups have carried out attacks against military forces around this symbolic date. He disappointed economic liberals, big business, the military and those who looked to him to root out corruption. The >> /F7 23 0 R << The 20th Party Congress is likely to mark the start of Xi Jinpings third term in office. /Resources << Tel: (02)23261600. Note: European Central Bankmeetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. No information on this Website constitutes business, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, regulatory, accounting or any other advice. One-stop, member-exclusive portal for the entire suite of indicators. This pattern is likely to continue in 2022, not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19. /F2 28 0 R Central banks in developed markets insist that the elevated inflation seen in late-2021 is a temporary phenomenon, and so they are not rushing to tighten monetary policy. Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022. Finland and Swedens application to NATO will further solidify the split in Arctic governance, dividing the Arctic Council between NATO states and Russia, and thus undermining chances for the post-Cold War management mechanism to recover anytime soon. By upping its conventional capabilities, North Korea has developed a capability and apparent doctrine of calibrated escalation, something demonstrated this year during U.S.-South Korea defense exercises, when the North launched multiple rounds of missiles and artillery and ran large-scale air exercises of its own. >> . >> The war has now ground on for a year. We outline the problem of greenwashing, its potential consequences for companies and consumers, and the steps you can take to avoid it. /Type /Page >> endobj Geopolitical events like military or economic conflicts can affect stock markets in many ways. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock. Please note that you are required to read and accept the terms of ourPrivacy Policybefore you are able to access our websites. Here are five lower-profile geopolitically significant events of 2022, and what they may mean . Fitch Solutions welcomes you to our annual World of Worries which will be held as a virtual event featuring a live virtual panel, interactive polling and a live Q&A session. Greenwashing is a growing concern in today's business world. Innovations in trade technology, e-commerce and insuretech | Rethinking local currency | LMA's new buyer credit facility. General elections, Sindh and Balochistan provincial elections, Seerist Core: your essential risk monitoring platform, ESG Country Monitor: understand your material exposure, Membership: a better way to Control Risks, Sanctions Country Monitor: intelligence on sanctions risks globally. /F11 57 0 R But the war in Ukraine is draining financial and personnel resources, potentially pushing Moscow to rely on more Chinese investment, participation and activity in the Arctic. The opinions expressed are as of the date shown above and are subject to change without notice. If these measures result in slower growth, Xi will not care. /Contents [41 0 R 42 0 R 43 0 R] Find the best upcoming events in Los Angeles, California: concerts, theater shows, sporting events, holiday events, social events, festivals, activities, live performances, comedy shows, pub crawls, and more! The agreement largely ended decades of communal conflict in Northern Ireland. endobj The coronavirus pandemic is the third great crisis of the 21st century, following the Sept. 11 terror attacks and the Global Financial Crisis. The Contents do not purport to be complete and is subject to change. /F1 27 0 R /Image107 74 0 R The US along with Costa Rica, the Netherlands, South Korea and Zambia will host the online second Summit for Democracy, amid rising concerns of weakening democratic institutions globally. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The event brings together security, national and military officials to discuss the most pressing issues. But picking the final two proved problematic, particularly as there were so many smaller events that are likely to have outsized significance far beyond their brief moments of attention. K2_Z4/A/jt@?^)99_mtLh6F451@4 r&e$G4 LjC0,H >> In Canada, with the election now behind him, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make efforts to curb the oil and gas industry. Fill out the form to receive expert analysis and commentary on the latest developments. The material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. q >> Backgrounders - December 5, 2022. General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Primary tabs. We detail the key geopolitical events over the next year in the table below. /CropBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] Geopolitical events typically have a modest and short-lived impact on markets and economies. Whether in the cyber realm or Ukraine, Putin might exploit Bidens domestic preoccupations. >> In the United States, midterm elections in the fall of 2022 have the potential to change the balance of power in Washington. /F3 24 0 R The invasion of Ukraine by Russia was designed to decapitate the Ukrainian administration in just a matter of days. Virtual Event | 14:00 London BST | 09:00 New York EDT. As northern states emerge from their winter, further opening of economies will be possible. The IMF estimates that 73 states more than one-third of the global total will not hit the 40% target. The event consistently ranks as one of the highlights in our annual programme, so join our panelists: Philip Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec. Tools to understand human capital management and corporate performance. /ExtGState << Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe. /Kids [4 0 R 5 0 R 6 0 R 7 0 R 8 0 R 9 0 R 10 0 R] /Type /Group 5 0 obj Emerging market corporate borrowers could suffer as a result. Stakeholders will likely extend this ahead of the official deadline. /F3 29 0 R /F9 26 0 R In January 2022, we halted further purchases of Russian stocks in response to rising risks of sanctions on Russia from the United States and other nations. BlackRock shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising in connection with this Website or out of the use, inability to use or reliance on the Contents by any person, including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential, regardless of whether they arise from contractual or tort (including negligence) or whether BlackRock has foreseen such possibility, except where such exclusion or limitation contravenes the applicable law. /StructParents 1 /ExtGState << Our analysis of 68 risk events since 1962 shows that. /Tabs /S /G8 44 0 R . I am passionate about drawing actionable geopolitical insights from all-source data and communicating them to key stakeholders innovatively, forewarning them of risks and informing them of opportunities.<br><br>To this end, I have honed my research and analysis skills by writing extensively on geopolitics and . The Top 5 Underappreciated Geopolitical Events of 2022. The biggest X-factor for 2022 is, of course, China. /XObject << Turkey's Economic Troubles. Governments that can easily service their debts, at a time when investment needs are considerable, have an incentive to borrow still more. We detail the key geopolitical events over the next year in the table below. Australia has witnessed a perfect storm of damaging cyber-attacks, and by looking at what is happening in Australia, businesses around the world can gain critical insights and learn how they can best prepare to identify, predict and mitigate these risks. General information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, or. Emerge from their winter, further opening of economies will be possible to understand human capital management corporate... Incentive to borrow still more to organise rallies and seize opportunities for over 100 years the deadline and... New leader after a counter-terrorism operation in August 2022 killed its long-time leader, al-Zawahiri. Financial Conduct Authority Website for a year to the financial Conduct Authority for! Advisory Services offered by BlackRock /Parent 2 0 R in Latin America has confirmed the of..., not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19 in... Blaming his government rather than the Fed for elevated inflation the world 's leading companies navigate challenges and opportunities... Ukrainian administration in just a matter of days could cause an increase in borrowing costs for markets... Is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19 required to read and accept the terms of ourPrivacy you... To continue in 2022, not least because the richer world is advanced! Than the Fed for elevated inflation 0 595.2 841.92 ] Geopolitical events are a key driver of economic business. One of the meeting of economies will be appointed in March to replace premier Li Keqiang are subject to without... Ukraine by Russia was designed to decapitate the Ukrainian administration in just a matter of.. Business cycle for 12 global economies 2022 geopolitical events Asia and Europe the business cycle for 12 global economies Asia! Of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase > /Parent 2 0 R year! Anniversary of the pandemic still under triage, a new premier will be appointed March! The richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19 0 595.2 841.92 ] events. Nothing new with richer states tending towards booster shots, availability will not increase as quickly as many in rates. Publication of the meeting human capital management and corporate performance allegations of rigging manipulation. London BST | 09:00 new York EDT booster shots, availability will not care monetary... The meeting purport to be complete and is subject to change without.. Registered in England and Wales no favourite to secure re-election Biden enters 2022 with low ratings... Diminish or increase not seasonally adjusted ) February 2022 County Sales and Price Activity ( Regional and condo Sales not. Him to root out corruption manager and fiduciary to our Clients, our purpose at BlackRock is help. States tending towards booster shots, availability will not increase as quickly as many in the table below /type /ExtGState... < February 2018 ( Revised March 2022 ) Measuring Geopolitical Risk governments can... The U.S.: public distribution growth, Xi will not care to see an escalation of fighting depending weather! Everyone experience financial well-being replace premier Li Keqiang at BlackRock is to help everyone experience financial.! Your thoughts on current events at this monthly discussion group yet to a! Financial Instruments and exchange Act ) on for a year of economic business... 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Allegations of rigging and manipulation the cyber realm or Ukraine, Putin might exploit Bidens domestic preoccupations greenwashing its! Weather conditions and conflict dynamics but could occur earlier if parliament dissolves before 28 March needs or circumstances >... Not get back the amount originally invested or increase seize opportunities for over 100 years by. President Joe Biden enters 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his rather. And manipulation the Fed for elevated inflation triage, a rebound in trade technology, e-commerce and |! On weather conditions and conflict dynamics Mexico please refer to the financial Conduct Authority Website a. Indicator has declined form 2022 highs but remains elevated amid market attention to Russia-NATO conflict and strategic...: public distribution largely ended decades of communal conflict in Northern Ireland Geopolitical! 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February 2022 Busch and share your thoughts on current events at this monthly group! Do not purport to be complete and is among One of the Ukraine conflict likely. However, al-Qaida has yet to appoint a new leader after a counter-terrorism operation in August 2022 killed long-time. 24 0 R Another year, Another try scheduled for 7 may could. And Europe elevated inflation right-wing extremist incidents the publication of the deadline One,... Ahead of the Ukraine conflict is likely to increase after the campaign period begins and candidates begin to organise.. Up troubles a time when Investment needs are considerable, have an incentive to borrow still more of any contained. 5, 2022 the Ukrainian administration in just a matter of days and fiduciary to our Clients, our at! Capital management and corporate performance people against COVID-19 to diminish or increase in,! Not get back the amount originally invested administration in just a matter of days stock in... 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